On Monday, Jack Forster of Hodinkee penned an editorial on a very interesting topic regarding dial aging of vintage watches. This is a familiar subject to the W4L team. In our ongoing chat, we’ve discussed this on various occasions, and to various degrees of depth. I agree with Jack that, eventually, these dials (as well as the hands) will degrade. The dial finishing will breakdown (which has already happened in some cases with tropical dials), lume will recede and/or fall off, and further aging – maybe beyond today’s desired characteristics – will occur. However, with so much money involved, and so many hats in the ring, I’m not terribly concerned, and let’s talk about why.
What we’ve seen over the last 10 years for vintage watches has been nothing short of incredible. However, it’s the last two years that have been practically mind-blowing. In fact, less than 2.5 years ago was when Hodinkee wrote an article about a “Nina Rindt” Universal Geneve found by a persistent collector…when they were selling for a couple grand! Yes, it only took about 28 months for these simple 36mm chronos to increase in value by roughly 1,000% percent. And Ninas are just the beginning. Vintage Heuer, Enicar, Omega, and of course Rolex and Patek, have all seen shocking increases in value over this period. The net effect of this trend has been the major increase in vintage watch interest across the board, as well as the attraction of serious investors and collectors. What that means is, well, lots of f’ing money in play.
So, how does this relate to the inevitable over-aging of vintage watches? I believe there’s no way all of this money currently being – and very likely, continuing to be – invested will allow its value to drop like the lume from a set of radium hands. The trend right now is focused on all-original parts, naturally aged to varying degrees. Top, crisp conditions get the most money, on down to over-polished cases and re-lumed or re-finished dials bringing up the rear. For the time being, this is the way things are. However, vintage watches are already, at the very least, 40 years old. When that low end of the vintage age becomes 50 to 100 years old, the aging will likely be a lot uglier. That’s when the transition will become much more obvious.
I think we’re already seeing the beginning stages of that transition. Expertly re-finished cases and re-done dials are becoming acceptable in certain instances. Guys like Bob Ridley and Abel Court have made names for themselves for this very service with Rolex and Heuer, respectively. At this point, these expert services are more for restoring beat up and less-than-desirable examples, but I can easily see that turning into a more maintenance-based service. Think BOTOX versus reconstructive surgery. If you want those lume pips to last, you better give them some help!
As it stands, I believe that not only are there plenty of watches to go around, but I also think there are plenty more hidden away. Dealers and big time collectors are in hoard mode right now. Lesser examples, in some cases, are being skimmed for parts for finer examples, and then those “improved” finer examples don’t see the light of day, save for the occasional auction catalog. What’s more, the widened pool of brands folks are interested in (which, in and of itself is part of the game to keep the vintage market going) has also theoretically lengthened the amount of time “all original” watches will be available and desirable. I mean, it’s not as though on March 27th, 2031, all vintage watch dials will be kaput. As an aside, I don’t even want to get into the fact that, from a statistical standpoint, virtually no one is an expert on some of these old off-brands who made watches up until the middle of last century, and I don’t know how that market will play out over the next 5-10 years.
The point of all this is that the vintage watch boom has gotten so big, that I just can’t imagine collectors letting all of this big money go flat. When the market is ready to fully accept restored watches, that’s exactly what will happen. Now, I’m not saying I’d like to be the guy holding a $75K Autavia when its lume disappears, but I’m also not afraid of collecting vintage watches for the next several decades. My advice would be the same as with any market: don’t invest more than you can afford, and you’ll be okay. Now, get out there and buy some $15K Sherpa Graphs!
Featured photo courtesy of our friends as Bob’s Watches.
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TrevorXM
A refinished case and a refinished dial are two completely different things. As long as the case is truly expertly re-finished it can always be degraded again to that “found in a kitchen change drawer” look that seems to be so desirable to a certain group of foolish collectors with more money than brains. These are only scuffs and scratches as the result of a careless or clumsy owner. There is no legitimate value in them. But there is no going back from a dial refinish. A dial refinish will always be a mistake as it takes its patina and character from the passage of time and that cannot be duplicated.
Shane Griffin
I agree that they’re two completely different things, especially where the market is now. But the point of the article was to say that in the future, when the majority of dials are just flat out old and ugly, the market will shift. Re-finished dials will become commonplace and acceptable in the market. I’ll also note that you can only polish a case so many times before it loses its original lines, and even the ability to re-create those original lines.
David Bolton
I do feel that in some cases with a refurbished / serviced watch, i.e a new face has to be expected. My own example is that my 1016 Rolex Explorer went for service in 1994 , because having owned the watch from new from 1973 , the lume was spent and as far as I was concerned then it was no longer fit for purpose.Being able to read the time in the dark was essential.Rolex replaced the face and polished the watch to their exacting standard, it was returned like new I was very happy with the result and today I can still just about read the time in the dark after 22 years. I wouldn’t hesitate to replace the face again when the lume fades, this was what the watch was designed for. I can understand that certain sections of the market have hyped originality as being paramount, but I am pretty sure that there are an overwhelming majority of vintage watch owners would like to find a watch that is as it was when it was created and enjoy the ownership from new experience of a well cared for watch
Shane Griffin
I understand your sentiment regarding vintage watches performing as they did when new. However, right now, the buyers in the market prefer original condition. There’s no two ways around that.