So, here I am, sitting at my laptop, trying to figure out how to digest the Christie’s Speedmaster 50 auction. On one hand, there were some really strong results. On the other, a few lots left me, well, just whelmed (neither “under” nor “over”). I think the neutral feelings come from over-hyping myself into believing we’d see some stupid silly numbers. In general, though, I think the auction showed the general public where rare Speedies really are in the market. Let’s take a look at some of the lots.
Starting off with the first few big lots, the 2915s did quite well. Lot 3 fell right where it was expected to, in the middle of the estimate, at $137K. Carrying a tropical dial, I really did think this would crush the estimate, but I was apparently too optimistic. However, either way, that’s a big result for a watch that has barely sniffed a watch forum (in good/correct condition) in a couple of years. What intrigued me most was the following lot, which crushed the $50K- $80K estimate, reaching $118K, and got pretty close to the tropical 2915 before it. Maybe some of the previous bidders were looking to make up for missing out on the tropical. At any rate, it’s safe to say that a proper 2915 will not be selling below $100K for at least a while.
After the 2915 comes a host of other straight-lug Speedies that all seemed to do well. I expected the tropical 2998-1 to break $60K, but a $50K result really is quite impressive. Lots 6-10 results highlight how keyed in the buyers were on condition, specifically how a tropical 105.003 realized the same price as a 2998-4. 105.003s are really the only straight lug reference that found their way to the forums in recent months, and they haven’t been anywhere close to the $20K price tag we saw last night. Granted, it was tropical, but it didn’t even have a bracelet (which could add about $2K to $2.5K if correct). Point being, condition can trump reference in some cases, even with a reference as rare as a 2998. Taking that comparison further is the 2998-62 in Lot 7 and the 105.003 in Lot 10. They finished about $1,000 from each other, which can be attributed to the perfect conditions of the watch-only 2998, and the very nice 105.003 that carried some aviation provenance with it. There’s no doubt in my mind that the later straight-lug Speedies will see a solid uptick in pricing in the coming months, especially examples in top condition.
The next best thing to the straight-lug Speedies is a twisted lug carrying the caliber 321. This would include the 105.012, and the 145.012. I think these were the biggest surprise when it came to the realized prices. Aside from complete sets or maybe a tropical, I haven’t seen these hit 5-digits. Yet, here we have three results ranging from $10,600 to $15,000, none of them tropical, and only one with the original guarantee booklet. Definitely expect prices of these Speedies to increase from about $5K-$7K to $10K and more, soon enough.
Outside of some crazy results on prototype Speedmasters, as well as the $8,000 Alaska Project (wut?), I was most excited to see the tropical 145.022 break $11K. Here you have the earliest of caliber 861 Speedmasters, sporting a chocolate dial, absolutely crushing the typical cost of a non-tropical version. The estimate was $3K-$5K, and rumor from inside the room has it that the watch actually laughed out loud as it destroyed the estimate. I’m not surprised in the least bit, and I almost feel bad for anyone hoping to buy one at a reasonable price in the near future.
Although prices on early Speedmasters have obviously risen in recent years, I think they were still much lower than their potential when compared with their closest vintage competitor, the Rolex Daytona. And last night, seeing late ‘50s and early ‘60s Speedies jump off for big time numbers, things are now on the level. Well, that’s it. The jig is up, the news is out, Speedmasters are publically expensive as hell.
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Ian
Do you think we’re going to see this effect spreading all the way to later 861s? I had and sold a mid-80’s model in the $2K range a few years ago, and have seen prices rise on those only a tiny bit in the time since. Do you think things are about to change?
Shane Griffin
I think later 861s will stay fairly consistent. It’s possible really clean examples (bordering on NOS) will bump slightly, but not enough to make a huge difference. Omega pumped so many of those out that they’re still very accessible. I don’t think a lot of folks give enough thought to how truly limited the production was on the first couple of references.
Ian
Thanks–to be honest, I have no real sense of how rare we’re talking.
Shane Griffin
I’ve heard 600 to 1000 2915s over 2.5 years, and then probably several thousand 2998s over 5-ish years. Then you factor in how many have been chopped up, junked, lost, etc, and the numbers get very low. Finally, of those left, how many would be in a “collectible” condition? SUPER LOW AMOUNTS. Large, sporty chronos weren’t popular at the time — I don’t think many people were spending disposable income on a largely useless and oversized stopwatch when they really just needed a simple watch for everyday life. Once the ’60s went into full swing, racing became much more sexy, and then you see the host of new sporty chronos come into the game: the Daytona, Carrera, UG Compaxes, etc.